Pain Index: Where do Arkansas, Purdue, other second-weekend team losses rank?
March Madness is one of the best events in the sports community for what it brings us: upsets, storylines and all the magic of three glorious weekends of win-or-go-home college basketball. When “One Shining Moment” plays at the end of the tournament, even the most stoic fans can be moved to tears.
But on the other side of every loss is a fan base with high expectations and the disappointment that their team left the tournament far too soon. On the receiving end of every buzzer-beater is a team left walking off the court stunned, jerseys covering their faces.
Is it possible to truly measure the level of heartbreak a team and its fans feel after a loss in the NCAA tournament? As a Mets, Jets and 76ers fan, I’m well-versed in sports misery and consider myself equipped with enough firsthand knowledge to compile this ranking of just that, from least to most painful.
This year, we’re breaking them down even further, into tiers:
Just happy to be here: Self-explanatory.
Such a tease: This tier is for the high seeds that made us do a double take at the scoreboard a few times, before eventually landing at the expected conclusion in blowout fashion.
Here’s your participation trophy: These teams were expected to have a reasonable chance to advance, but never really were a threat.
Silver linings playbook: The loss wasn’t ideal, but there’s something positive to take from the overall tournament performance.
So close, yet so far: They were in it for a majority of the game, but the final score didn’t show it.
We’re not mad, just disappointed: For the flat-out underperformers.
Emotional roller coaster: They had us at the edge of our seat and biting our nails.
If you had one shot or one opportunity: Things came down to the final play.
… What just happened?! Reserved for the most painful finishes.
We’re basing these rankings on pre-tournament expectations, peak win probability (according to ESPN Analytics) and other notable storylines or circumstances. We’re also going to update this after each weekend, as teams are eliminated from the dance.
Let’s dive in.
Last updated: April 1, 2025
Tiers:
Just happy to be here | Such a tease | Here’s your participation trophy |
Silver linings playbook | So close, yet so far | We’re not mad, just disappointed |
Emotional roller coaster | If you had one shot or one opportunity | What just happened?!
Just happy to be here
64. Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (16-seed, East)
How they lost: 93-49 to 1-seed Duke in the first round
Peak win probability: 0.7% at tip-off
The Mountaineers were never in the game. But they were never expected to be in it. Winning a First Four game brings money to the school and the conference (which is why 16 seeds play in that round instead of only the last at-large teams in the field), so anything beyond that is simply playing with house money.
63. SIU Edwardsville Cougars (16-seed, Midwest)
How they lost: 78-40 to 1-seed Houston in the first round
Peak win probability: 1.2% with 18:13 left in first half, leading 4-2
No shame in losing in the battle of the Cougars. SIU Edwardsville was making its first-ever NCAA tournament appearance and had a lead against a 1-seed. (For what it’s worth, Gonzaga never led against Houston in the next round.) What eventually transpired matters much less than the exposure the school and players got on the sport’s biggest stage.
62. Norfolk State Spartans (16-seed, South)
How they lost: 95-69 to 1-seed Florida in the first round
Peak win probability: 3% at tip-off
The Spartans are known for their 15-2 upset over Missouri in the 2012 tournament, but they’ve become the class of the MEAC in recent seasons, having won the conference’s auto-bid in three of the past five years. This 26-point loss was actually Norfolk State’s closest loss in that span, so things are looking up.
61. Alabama State Hornets (16-seed, South)
How they lost: 83-63 to 1-seed Auburn in the first round
Peak win probability: 6% with 1:29 left in first half, trailing by 1
The Hornets pulled off a stunning last-second win in the First Four, and while the outcome of their meeting with Auburn was likely never in doubt, they still made a game of it for 20 minutes. They were a 32.5-point underdog and hung around with the tournament’s top overall seed. Rest easy, SWAC champs. This is about as good as it gets for a 16-seed.
60. Lipscomb Bisons (14-seed, South)
How they lost: 82-55 to 3-seed Iowa State in the first round
Peak win probability: 14% with 11:18 left in first half, leading by 1
As a 14-seed, all you can ask for is a competitive start — which isn’t even something all the 9-seeds did. The Bisons delivered for their fans in that regard. The 13-point underdogs led Iowa State 16-15 after nine minutes of play. That they then got outscored 41-14 is something we’ll choose not to remember.
59. Bryant Bulldogs (15-seed, South)
How they lost: 87-62 to 2-seed Michigan State in the first round
Peak win probability: 21% with 4:47 left in first half, leading by 3
A 21% win probability is better than most 15-seeds ever see (more on this later), so it was certainly a respectable showing for the Bulldogs. But there’s nothing like a meeting with Tom Izzo in March to remind you that life comes at you fast: The Spartans ended the game on a 33-16 run.
Such a tease
58. Wofford Terriers (15-seed, Midwest)
How they lost: 77-62 to 2-seed Tennessee in the first round
Peak win probability: 6% with 13:33 left in second half, trailing by 8
Wofford was the 6-seed in the SoCon tournament and pulled off three upsets just to reach the Big Dance. Being within shouting distance of the Vols after the break is an accomplishment in itself; a few more shots here or there and this might’ve been an actual sweat.
57. Montana Grizzlies (14-seed, East)
How they lost: 85-66 to 3-seed Wisconsin in the first round
Peak win probability: 12% with 15:14 left in second half, trailing by 4
Montana’s game against Wisconsin played out as most 3-14 and 4-13 games do, with the underdog keeping pace but not truly threatening an upset. Grizzlies fans may have forgotten what losing felt like for a bit though, as Montana had lost just one game since Jan. 19 — in overtime — entering the first round.
56. Yale Bulldogs (13-seed, South)
How they lost: 80-71 to 3-seed Texas A&M in the first round
Peak win probability: 28% with 18:27 left in first half, leading 2-0
The public’s favorite 13-4 upset pick never really made a charge at the Aggies, whose defensive nature limited the Bulldogs early on. Texas A&M led 27-14 early and then maintained at least a two-possession lead the rest of the way. For fans, the score remained just close enough that you had to pay attention, just in case. A bit of a letdown after knocking off Auburn last year, but Yalies need not fret.
55. Grand Canyon Lopes (13-seed, West)
How they lost: 81-49 to 4-seed Maryland in the first round
Peak win probability: 26% with 16:14 left in first half, leading 5-0
The pixie dust from last season’s Cinderella-esque 12-5 upset over Saint Mary’s expired about 10 minutes into this game, with Grand Canyon simply unable to get anything going on offense. Last year’s hero Tyon Grant-Foster dropped 23 for his third straight 20-point NCAA tournament game, but the rest of the Lopes tallied just 26 combined, including 2-for-16 from deep, 2-for-5 on free throws and one field goal in the final 7:56.
54. Troy Trojans (14-seed, Midwest)
How they lost: 75-57 to 3-seed Kentucky in the first round
Peak win probability: 21% with 3:17 left in first half, trailing by 1
Kentucky has seen its fair share of upset losses over the years, so when the Trojans trailed by a single point at 25-24, then pulled back within six in the second half, it didn’t quite sound the alarm bells, but it was absolutely a scoreboard to monitor. Troy is still searching for its first NCAA tournament victory but can hold its head high after a loss to a senior-laden, reenergized blue blood.
53. Omaha Mavericks (15-seed, West)
How they lost: 83-53 to 2-seed St. John’s in the first round
Peak win probability: 16% with 8:47 left in first half, leading by 6
The final score doesn’t truly reflect the way the game played out: the Mavericks led the Johnnies for a while and made it to halftime with a chance to make a run. The 3-pointer became Omaha’s undoing, however: The Mavericks shot 5-for-36 from deep while the Red Storm thundered to a 12-2 run to open the second half. For a team making its NCAA tournament debut, this was a valiant effort.
52. High Point Panthers (13-seed, Midwest)
How they lost: 75-63 to 4-seed Purdue in the first round
Peak win probability: 27% with 7:23 left in second half, trailing by 3
How about this for your NCAA tournament debut? A 27% win probability feels like a particularly low number considering High Point spent the first 30-plus minutes within striking distance, but perhaps it’s just because we’d seen Purdue be upset in these scenarios before. The Panthers were declawed late, scoring just once from the 7:00 mark until the final minute of the game.
51. UNC Wilmington Seahawks (14-seed, West)
How they lost: 82-72 to 3-seed Texas Tech in the first round
Peak win probability: 39% with 13:44 left in second half, leading by 1
Texas Tech almost struggled more against the Seahawks than it did against Drake in the second round; UNC Wilmington held its 3-seed opponent to under 40% shooting and was within a single possession with 7:00 left. Heck, the Seahawks even erased a 16-point first-half deficit to take the lead. This one felt like an upset that could actually happen, which would have been the biggest seed upset of the tournament.
Here’s your participation trophy
50. Akron Zips (13-seed, East)
How they lost: 93-65 to 4-seed Arizona in the first round
Peak win probability: 11% with 13:37 left in first half, with game tied
There’s no other way to put it: Akron’s defense got un-Zipped like a jacket on the first day of spring. There weren’t even any big runs worthy of listing on KenPom’s play-by-play chart for the game. Akron plays at a pace the Roadrunner would envy, which encouraged Arizona to keep pushing — and led to 52 Wildcats points in the second half.
49. Liberty Flames (12-seed, East)
How they lost: 81-52 to 5-seed Oregon in the first round
Peak win probability: 25% at tip-off
This one was over before it even started, thanks to an uncharacteristic night behind the arc for the Flames. Liberty ranked top-5 in D-I in 3-point FG% entering the game, but missed 13 of its first 14 from deep. The phrase “live by the 3, die by the 3” has never been more apt.
48. San Diego State Aztecs (11-seed, South)
How they lost: 95-68 to 11-seed North Carolina in the First Four
Peak win probability: 38% with 16:28 left in first half, leading 6-5
That peak win probability was the last lead the Aztecs saw; they were in front for a total of 25 seconds. The Tar Heels then went on a 20-2 run, doubled up SDSU at the break and put it in cruise control. First-round exits never feel great, and San Diego State went winless in both the Mountain West and NCAA tournaments. Aztec fans can still fall back on the title game appearance from two seasons ago.
47. Utah State Aggies (10-seed, Midwest)
How they lost: 72-47 to 7-seed UCLA in the first round
Peak win probability: 45% with 18:21 left in first half, leading by 3
One particularly poetic aspect of sports, I’ve found, is how teams’ playoff games and series are often microcosms of their seasons as a whole. Utah State started the season 10-0 and 16-1 but lost three of its final six conference games and four of its last six overall; the first-round loss to UCLA had similar vibes. A strong start for the plucky Aggies left them within one possession much of the opening half against a superior Bruins squad. Twice after halftime, Utah State went five-plus minutes without scoring.
46. VCU Rams (11-seed, East)
How they lost: 80-71 to 6-seed BYU in the first round
Peak win probability: 56% with 18:47 left in first half, leading 5-0
The first 16 minutes were won by BYU 27-26. The next eight minutes were won by BYU 27-8. It was a common story among favorites in this year’s tournaments: The halftime pep talk and early second-half outburst to put the game away. For all the love VCU gets every year, the Rams haven’t won in the NCAA tournament since 2016 and haven’t reached the Sweet 16 since their magical 2011 run.
45. Louisville Cardinals (8-seed, South)
How they lost: 89-75 to 9-seed Creighton in the first round
Peak win probability: 57% with 16:57 left in first half, leading 5-2
The much-maligned ACC didn’t get a lot of defenders during the tournament as Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina all failed to advance to the second round. Injuries became the Cardinals’ downfall, as senior guard Reyne Smith reinjured his ankle in the loss and James Scott also played just 15 scoreless minutes of his own. It was a somber end to an otherwise stunning turnaround season for Louisville.
44. Georgia Bulldogs (9-seed, Midwest)
How they lost: 89-68 to 8-seed Gonzaga in the first round
Peak win probability: 27% after winning the opening jumpball (down to 1% at 10-minute mark)
Woof.
Surely some UGA fans had high hopes to topple the other G____a Bulldogs, but others likely knew it would be a tough game. After all, the Zags were favored by 7.5 in an 8-9 game. But even Adam Morrison could not have predicted a 27-3 beatdown before the second media timeout. More could be said, but it all adds up to football season starting early in the Peach State.
43. BYU Cougars (6-seed, East)
How they lost: 113-88 to 2-seed Alabama in the Sweet 16
Peak win probability: 49% with 16:57 left in first half, leading by 5
If Wisconsin’s increased tempo suited BYU well in the round of 32, the style of play the Cougars brought against Alabama was catalystic in nature. The Tide obliterated the NCAA tournament record for 3-pointers with 25 makes, and their 62 second-half points were as many as 19 teams scored in entire tournament games this year. BYU fans, apologies for making this one largely about Alabama. But that’s what this game was. If your team had shot more than 20% from deep, we might have had a closer game, but the end result would likely still be the same.
Silver linings playbook
42. Baylor Bears (9-seed, East)
How they lost: 89-66 to 1-seed Duke in the round of 32
Peak win probability: 31% with 9:32 left in first half, leading by 2
The good: a second-round shellacking means less as a 9-seed going against one of the best teams in the country. The bad: it was still a second-round shellacking and the fourth season in a row Scott Drew’s Bears have failed to escape the opening weekend. The silver lining? Baylor will still be one of just four teams to cut down the nets in the past five seasons.
41. McNeese Cowboys (12-seed, Midwest)
How they lost: 76-62 to Purdue in the round of 32
Peak win probability: 23% at tip-off
Will Wade’s Cowboys (or should I say Amir Khan’s Cowboys) stayed true to their identity in both tournament games, forcing the Boilermakers into 19 turnovers. But rather than blitzing the opponent, as McNeese did against Clemson, it was the Southland squad’s turn out of the gate, trailing 20-8 before the second media timeout. Ah well, we’ll always have the locker room celebrations and boom box tunnel vibes.
40. Drake Bulldogs (11-seed, West)
How they lost: 77-64 to 3-seed Texas Tech in the round of 32
Peak win probability: 62% with 10:52 left in first half, leading by 6
Does it sting a bit to lose by 13 when the sum of all your losses for the season added up to 13? Perhaps. Does it sting even more to have two straight coaches leave for bigger jobs immediately following NCAA tournament exits? Almost certainly. But a 31-win season capped by an 11-6 seed upset softens the blow.
39. Saint Mary’s Gaels (7-seed, East)
How they lost: 80-66 to 2-seed Alabama in the round of 32
Peak win probability: 35% with 11:45 left in first half, with game tied
As the coach at a mid-major school with only 2,700 undergraduates, Randy Bennett has done a fantastic job getting the Gaels into the NCAA tournament consistently (11 appearances in 24 seasons, including four straight). But despite being a 7-seed this year, and a 5-seed each of the previous three seasons, Saint Mary’s still hasn’t seen the Sweet 16 since 2010. A matchup with Alabama was, to quote J.K. Simmons’ character in ‘Whiplash,’ “not quite my tempo,” and the Tide held the Gaels at arm’s length for much of the game.
So close, yet so far
38. American University Eagles (16-seed, East)
How they lost: 83-72 to Mount St. Mary’s in the First Four
Peak win probability: 61% with 13:17 left in first half, leading by 3
The Eagles were locked in a dead heat for much of the game, but went cold from the field, going scoreless for over six minutes and falling behind by 17. American was favored by 2.5 in this one, so there’s still a bit of disappointment involved for the Patriot League champs.
37. Oklahoma Sooners (9-seed, West)
How they lost: 67-59 to 8-seed UConn in the first round
Peak win probability: 53% with 9:03 left in 2nd half, leading by 1
Being the 13th team in a row to lose to UConn in the NCAA tournament wasn’t the problem for the Sooners. What made it more frustrating was how it happened. Oklahoma shot 3-for-17 from deep and yet was still in the mix at the under-four break. If a couple more shots had touched nylon, we might’ve seen the Huskies packing up a round earlier. Nevertheless, it was Oklahoma’s 15th loss since we rang in the new year, so a long run likely wasn’t expected.
36. Xavier Musketeers (11-seed, Midwest)
How they lost: 86-73 to 6-seed Illinois in the first round
Peak win probability: 51% with 17:12 left in first half, leading 6-2
The defeat to Illinois wasn’t ideal, but it pales in comparison to what happened just a few days later. The Pain Index is meant to quantify the woe felt after a loss; does that mean it can apply to a loss of a coach as well? Sean Miller beat Texas in the First Four and then took the head coaching job … at Texas … less than a week later. The committee doesn’t create narratives when seeding the tournament, but imagine a world where Texas and Xavier meet again next season. Grab the popcorn.
35. UCLA Bruins (7-seed, Midwest)
How they lost: 67-58 to 2-seed Tennessee in the round of 32
Peak win probability: 49% with 6:59 left in first half, leading by 3
It was going to be a tough road to climb for the Bruins playing with two starters on the bench due to foul trouble (neither Eric Dailey Jr. nor Skyy Clark saw the court in the final 17 minutes of the opening half). But it was actually a 22-6 Vols run spanning both halves that was the nail in the proverbial coffin for UCLA: the Bruins wouldn’t get the margin under 10 until the final possession.
34. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-seed, Midwest)
How they lost: 84-75 to 3-seed Kentucky in the round of 32
Peak win probability: 49% with 16:42 left in first half, leading by 1
The Illini were a team of runs all season long, for better and for worse. So it was extremely predictable they would nearly erase a 12-point first-half deficit — only to immediately cough up a 12-0 Kentucky run in return. Rooting for the orange and blue this season had the aura of a roulette wheel, so it was only a matter of time before the ball landed on green 00. But this one felt better than the 33-2 UConn run that ended Illinois’ tournament in last year’s Elite Eight, and Brad Underwood still got his team to the tournament for a fifth straight season.
33. Creighton Bluejays (9-seed, South)
How they lost: 82-70 to 1-seed Auburn in the round of 32
Peak win probability: 48% with 14:13 left in second half, leading by 2
The Bluejays threw everything they had at Auburn for two-thirds of the game, with neither team leading by more than five until the 13:07 mark. Creighton simply ran out of gas at the end, going scoreless for over six minutes against the overall top seed and was unable to recover from there. Ryan Kalkbrenner ends his 169-game career with at least one NCAA tournament win in all five seasons in Omaha.
32. New Mexico Lobos (10-seed, South)
How they lost: 71-63 to 2-seed Michigan State in the round of 32
Peak win probability: 66% with 8:12 left in first half, leading by 10
The Mountain West has notably struggled in the NCAA tournament in recent years, save for San Diego State’s national title game run a few seasons back. The Lobos upset Marquette and were poised to do the same here, but it is nearly impossible to keep Michigan State down. New Mexico didn’t trail until the second half, but foul trouble gave Sparty enough points to seal the deal.
31. Robert Morris Colonials (15-seed, East)
How they lost: 90-81 to 2-seed Alabama in the first round
Peak win probability: 48% with 6:52 left in second half, leading by 1
It’s hard to call what transpired “painful” in any sense, as Robert Morris got close to its biggest win in program history. But there’s a bit of “what if” reflection to be had after the Colonials took a 65-64 lead with 7:10 left (especially since Saint Mary’s never led by more than one against Alabama, either). Six straight missed field goals gave the Tide enough cushion to relax, but one more made shot could have really made things interesting.
30. Arizona Wildcats (4-seed, East)
How they lost: 100-93 to 1-seed Duke in the Sweet 16
Peak win probability: 39% with 14:02 left in first half, leading by 4
Yet another good, not elite, team headed home simply because its opponent was unstoppable. The Wildcats dropped 51 in the second half and trimmed a 16-point lead down to five with 2:00 left, but were one big shot away from avoiding the foul game. Since their 2001 title game appearance, the Tucson tandem have reached 12 Sweet 16s in 23 seasons but have yet to push for a Final Four berth in that span.
29. Maryland Terrapins (14-seed, West)
How they lost: 87-71 to 1-seed Florida in the Sweet 16
Peak win probability: 53% with 5:00 left in first half, leading by 3
Give one to the Terps: They rebounded from an early 11-point deficit to take a lead near halftime. But the Gators kept bringing fresh bodies off the bench and starter-dominant Maryland was unable to keep pace. Florida reached the final weekend, so this defeat is forgiveable, and the buzzer-beater from Derik Queen remains one of the best shots of the entire tournament. But now Kevin Willard is headed to Villanova and as quickly as this team’s popularity grew, it has disappeared.
We’re not mad, just disappointed
28. Iowa State Cyclones (3-seed, South)
How they lost: 91-78 to 6-seed Ole Miss
Peak win probability: 85% with 14:00 left in first half, leading by 7
Even if you chalk it up to injuries, which the Cyclones dealt with more than nearly any other team this year, something just felt off about this game. Iowa State’s worst FG% allowed in any game in the past three seasons (the Rebels shot 58%) came at the worst possible time, and the 13-point margin of defeat actually paints a rosier picture: Iowa State was down by 26 at one point.
27. Kansas Jayhawks (7-seed, West)
How they lost: 79-72 to 10-seed Arkansas in the first round
Peak win probability: 75% with 4:55 left in first half, leading by 3
A disappointing end to a disappointing season for the Jayhawks, who earned their worst NCAA tournament seed under Bill Self and their worst since 2000’s 8-seed. Kansas also failed to get out of the first round for the first time since 2006 after making one field goal in the final 4:55. Unattached fans must have loved seeing Self, Rick Pitino and John Calipari all under one roof, but KU faithful are looking at chalk that got rocked rather than chanting “Rock Chalk.”
26 . Missouri Tigers (6-seed, West)
How they lost: 67-57 to 11-seed Drake in the first round
Peak win probability: 74% with 13:29 left in first half, leading by 2
The Tigers’ last lead came with the score at 7-5. Missouri really twisted the knife in the second half by trimming a 15-point deficit to one point with 4:28 left, but then went ice cold down the stretch and lost by double digits. Half of the SEC teams in the tournament reached the Sweet 16; Missouri was the only one of the 14 to lose to a team multiple seed lines worse.
25. Marquette Golden Eagles (7-seed, South)
How they lost: 75-66 to 10-seed New Mexico in the first round
Peak win probability: 70% with 11:56 left in second half, leading by 3
Another year, another earlier-than-expected tournament exit for the Golden Eagles. This is the third straight season Marquette has been eliminated by a worse-seeded team (it lost the previous two years to 7- and 11-seeds, respectively, as a 2-seed). This year’s group didn’t have the lofty expectations of 2023 and 2024, but allowing a 10-0 run in the final minutes is not only disheartening, but par for the course recently.
24. Memphis Tigers (5-seed, West)
How they lost: 78-70 to 12-seed Colorado State in the first round
Peak win probability: 75% with 19:48 left in second half, leading by 7
If you clicked on this matchup on the Tournament Challenge site when filling out your bracket, you read the following analysis of the Tigers: “The Tigers’ record includes wins over Michigan State, Missouri, Clemson, Ole Miss and UConn — all close games. Memphis also lost at home to non-tourney team Arkansas State by 13 and played close games against lesser competition during the season, losing to Temple and barely beating UTSA and Rice. Expect dramatic finishes regardless of the opponent.
We tried to warn you. Without guard Tyrese Hunter, Memphis didn’t have the firepower to shout down all those who said the Tigers were over-seeded.
23. Kentucky Wildcats (3-seed, Midwest)
How they lost: 78-65 to 2-seed Tennessee in the Sweet 16
Peak win probability: 41% with 17:27 left in first half, leading 3-2
I spent a lot of time trying to get into the mindset of a Kentucky fan. Was this season a success because of lowered expectations after Calipari left, along with 99% of the roster? Are the standards so high that even in Mark Pope’s first season, it’s title or bust? Is a 3-seed and a Sweet 16 berth enough to quench the thirst for success in Lexington, or does an uncompetitive hapless loss to rival Tennessee outweigh all of it? Or, perhaps, it’s a mixed bag filled with all of the above.
22 . Alabama Crimson Tide (2-seed, East)
How they lost: 85-65 to 1-seed Duke in the Elite Eight
Peak win probability: 29% at tip-off
It would be wrong to say this Alabama team didn’t play defense. The Tide ended the season top-30 in the nation in KenPom defensive efficiency. But there inevitably comes a game where the shooting bottoms out and the defense has to become the primary reason for a victory. A game against Cooper Flagg is not that game. Alabama was behind from the jump, never led but trimmed the lead to 7 with 8:00 to go. That was followed by a five-minute scoreless drought that put the nail in the coffin of another impressive season for Nate Oats.
21 . Tennessee Volunteers 2-seed, Midwest)
How they lost: 69-50 to 1-seed Houston in the Elite Eight
Peak win probability: 33% at tip-off
These Vols were supposed to be different. Defense is the hallmark of a solid Tennessee team under Rick Barnes, but with Chaz Lanier and Jahmai Mashack, and the leadership of Zakai Zeigler, it was supposed to be able to match opponents punch for punch when the rubber hit the road. Instead, this game saw the fewest points in the first half by a top-2 seed… ever. We’ve spoken about the quality of the FInal Four teams ad nauseam, and this isn’t meant as a slight at Houston’s defense at all. It just has to get a little tired hearing the same old story in Knoxville: elite defense, prone to abject offensive failure.
Emotional roller coaster
20. North Carolina Tar Heels (11-seed, South)
How they lost: 71-64 to 6-seed Ole Miss in the first round
Peak win probability: 56% at tip-off
Remember the point about a team’s tournament result being a microcosm for its season? Presenting Exhibit B: The Tar Heels were 1-12 in Quad 1 games and smashed against all other competition (21-1 W-L). Those 12 Q1 losses included four one-possession heartbreakers and multiple other close calls. Sneaking into the tournament, beating San Diego State by 27 in what amounted to a Quad 2 game and then losing to Ole Miss in a Quad 1 game after a furious 20-point comeback fell short? Quentin Tarantino couldn’t have written a better script.
19. Texas A&M Aggies (4-seed, South)
How they lost: 91-79 to 5-seed Michigan in the round of 32
Peak win probability: 89% with 13:17 left in second half, leading by 10
Copy-paste directly from the Illinois blurb. A&M was never outworked in a game this season, but it was prone to offensive lulls that portended a premature bracket exit. The Aggies led for the majority of the second half against Michigan but surrendered a 16-3 run that ultimately led to their demise. Somewhat shocking and under the radar was the fact that Texas A&M had only three attempts blocked by Michigan’s massive men in the middle, despite allowing the highest block rate in all of D-I this season.
18. Texas Longhorns (11-seed, Midwest)
How they lost: 86-80 to 11-seed Xavier in the First Four
Peak win probability: 91% with 12:26 left in second half, leading by 10
The Longhorns were widely expected by bracketologists to miss the NCAA tournament, but snuck into the field for a chance at the First Four. They led most of the game, including by double digits for a large portion, but surrendered 29 points in the final 10:00. Even still, the Longhorns had a chance to tie in the final minute.
17. Oregon Ducks (5-seed, East)
How they lost: 87-83 to 4-seed Arizona in the round of 32
Peak win probability: 77% with 13:44 left in first half, leading by 14
Arizona was always going to go as far as Caleb Love took them. That Oregon was even close, despite Love’s 29 points and five triples, is a feat on its own. But this meeting of former Pac-12 schools felt like it had a little extra on the line. A 15-point Ducks lead was erased as quickly as it was formed, and then Oregon was playing catch-up the rest of the game. Four different times, they got within one possession during the end-of-game foul frenzy, yet Arizona refused any chances at taking the tying 3. We kept waiting for the big shot that never arrived.
16. Michigan State Spartans (2-seed, South)
How they lost: 70-64 to 1-seed Auburn in the Elite Eight
Peak win probability: 37% with 15:50 left in first half, leading by 2
There was a brief moment where the game truly felt like it hung in the balance. Sparty had held Auburn to 5 points in a seven-minute span in the second half, Johni Broome and Chad Baker-Mazara were injured — with Broome even departing briefly for the locker room. Then he re-entered the game and hit a dagger 3 to push the lead back up to double digits. Izzo’s bunch never lost by more than eight points this season — and never by more than 6 as soon as the calendar turned to December. Alas, stars often emerge victorious in March and Michigan State didn’t have a go-to guy.
15. St. John’s Red Storm (2-seed, West)
How they lost: 75-66 to 10-seed Arkansas in the round of 32
Peak win probability: 76% with 2:38 left in first half, leading by 4
Picture John Calipari singing Shania Twain like this: “Okay, so you won the Big East… That don’t impress me much.” “Okay, so you beat Omaha… That don’t impress me much.”
The Red Storm shot 2-for-22 from deep, RJ Luis Jr. missed 11 field goals inside the arc and it felt like everyone was going to foul out if the game went to overtime. St. John’s had a dominant season derailed because it couldn’t adapt. No team gets through the NCAA tournament gauntlet without a tight whistle in a game or two, and despite 28 offensive rebounds, the Johnnies had a quiet trip back down the I-95 from Providence.
14. Michigan Wolverines (5-seed, South)
How they lost: 78-65 to 1-seed Auburn in the Sweet 16
Peak win probability: 85% with 12:25 left in second half, leading by 9
I’m not sure if a 31-8 stretch over a quarter of the game qualifies as a run, but it’s rare to see that drastic a differential play out in the second weekend or later. The Wolverines had made their living on close wins all season, while occasionally getting run out of the building, so it follows that they would survive against UC San Diego, outlast Texas A&M and fall flat against Auburn. What might hurt more for Michigan fans is knowing that one more win would have set up a date with cross-state rival Michigan State, with a spot in the Final Four on the line.
13. Ole Miss Rebels (6-seed, South)
How they lost: 73-70 to 2-seed Michigan State in the Sweet 16
Peak win probability: 86% with 12:15 left in second half, leading by 9
There’s a reason calendars in East Lansing go January, February, Izzo, April: You never count out the Spartans in March. Ole Miss ran into curiously similar situations in all three of its tournament games: open up a big lead, then squander some of it. Against UNC, a 22-point lead was cut to 2. Against Iowa State, the 26-point cushion was slashed to 11 in just eight possessions. Against Sparty, a 9-point gap was turned into a 3-point deficit in five minutes. Play with fire often enough and you’ll get burned.
Even then, the Rebels had a one-possession game late. Just too many emotional swings and not enough big shots.
12. Clemson Tigers (5-seed, Midwest)
How they lost: 69-67 to 12-seed McNeese in the first round
Peak win probability: 83% with 16:48 left in first half, leading 4-2
Following up an Elite Eight appearance with a first-round upset loss is a letdown. Doing so by scoring 13 points in the first half against a 12-seed is painful at its core. Yet somehow, this defeat had everything: turnovers, missed 3s, even a furious comeback that gave you hope — just to turn around and hand you the L once again. The loss might have been less painful if the Tigers hadn’t showed up in the second half.
If you had one shot or one opportunity
11. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-seed, East)
How they lost: 75-72 to 9-seed Baylor in the first round
Peak win probability: 54% with 1:19 left in second half, trailing by 1
The comeback bid that falls just short often creates more anguish than a blowout loss. The Bulldogs had just a 5% chance to win with 8:11 left, trailing by 11, but stormed back to pull within one with seconds remaining. Claudell Harris Jr.’s shot wouldn’t fall and Mississippi State was left with an opening-round defeat.
10. St. Francis (PA) Red Flash (16-seed, South)
How they lost: 70-68 to 16-seed Alabama State in the First Four
Peak win probability: 79% with 16:29 left in second half, leading by 8
For a team with a 16-18 record, making the NCAA tournament should have been exciting enough to avoid the anguish of losing. But the Red Flash led most of the second half of their First Four game against Alabama State, had the ball with a chance to tie or win in the final seconds — and turned it over. A last-second game winner by Alabama State made St. Francis the first team to lose in this year’s tournament.
9. Wisconsin Badgers (3-seed, East)
How they lost: 91-89 to 6-seed BYU in the round of 32
Peak win probability: 53% at tip-off
The “Fighting Tonjes” never led against BYU, but that doesn’t mean the game wasn’t close. As the nation’s leader in free throws, it’s fitting that John Tonje went 14-16 from the charity stripe, including a perfect 11-11 in the final 13 minutes. The Badgers put up 53 points in the second half playing at the increased pace they’d adopted this season, their fastest in over 30 seasons. There was only one problem: BYU’s offense thrives in an up-and-down environment and accordingly put up 91 points. Wisconsin forced multiple turnovers late, closing the gap quick enough that they didn’t need to foul. After a rare defensive stop, Tonje found himself with a chance to force overtime, but his off-balance iso jumper missed everything. Exhale for Cougar fans, sighs of sorrow for the Bucky Badger faithful.
8. Gonzaga Bulldogs (8-seed, Midwest)
How they lost: 81-76 to 1-seed Houston in the round of 32
Peak win probability: 48% with 21 seconds left in second half, trailing by 1
One of the first things the college hoops community noticed when the bracket was revealed was the Zags getting an 8-seed — admittedly, a fitting spot based on résumé alone, but a drastic underestimation of the team’s strength that would await the inevitable 1-8 matchup. Houston, we might have had a problem. As the Cougars maintained a lead of anywhere between seven to 12 points, it felt like Gonzaga might go down without a fight. Then the Bulldogs rattled off a 10-1 run, held Houston without a field goal for the final 4:30 and found themselves down three with the ball at the game’s end. But Khalif Battle‘s shot was blocked, and Gonzaga’s nine-season streak of Sweet 16s is now snapped.
7. UC San Diego Tritons (12-seed, South)
How they lost: 68-65 to 5-seed Michigan in the first round
Peak win probability: 60% with 2:29 left in second half, leading by 2
Of the four teams making their NCAA tournament debut, this one hurts the most. The Tritons were 30-4, hadn’t lost in two months, were only two-point underdogs and had the style of play to match the Big Ten tournament champs. One of the best 3-point shooting teams in D-I, UCSD had one of its worst shooting nights, but still led a 5-seed in the final minutes and had a chance to tie it at the buzzer. This had all the makings of an upset, but UCSD just couldn’t get over the hump.
6. Vanderbilt Commodores (10-seed, East)
How they lost: 59-56 to 7-seed Saint Mary’s in the first round
Peak win probability: 89% with 15:06 left in second half, leading by 12
A slow-paced battle and a tight spread had all the makings of a “last team with the ball wins” classic, and that’s essentially what happened — but only because the Commodores couldn’t shut the door. Vandy led Saint Mary’s by double digits in the second half but scored only 11 points in a 14-minute span to allow the Gaels to grab the lead. As Devin McGlockton‘s last-second jumper clanged off the iron, it marked the fourth straight loss for Vanderbilt in a season that started off with promise.
What just happened?!
5. UConn Huskies (8-seed, West)
How they lost: 77-75 to 1-seed Florida in the round of 32
Peak win probability: 77% with 9:05 left in second half, leading by 6
The two-time defending national champion Huskies understood the assignment. Take care of the ball, defend, make a few key shots late. They raced to a six-point lead out of the half and led for the next 17 minutes. The dream for a three-peat was alive and well, and the top-seeded Gators — picked to win it all in 21% of Tournament Challenge brackets, the second most of any team — looked uneasy for most of the game. Brackets were about to be in shambles. And then a switch flipped. UConn went scoreless for nearly two minutes, Florida went on an 8-0 run sparked by multiple offensive rebounds off missed free throws and, just like that, the dream is dead.
4. Purdue Boilermakers (4-seed, Midwest)
How they lost: 62-60 to 1-seed Houston in the Sweet 16
Peak win probability: 49% with 5 seconds left in second half, tied at 60
“Not being favored to win for a single second” would be a complete mischaracterization of this Sweet 16 meeting. Neither team led by more than 4 points in the opening frame, and Purdue’s largest deficit was 10 before it clawed back by holding Houston to 4 points in eight minutes. The Boilermakers felt like slight underdogs the entire time, ready to pounce and take out a 1-seed. That was all undone in a span of seconds as Milos Uzan‘s layup just about sealed the deal. A beautiful play call by Kelvin Sampson and an almost flawless defensive response from Matt Painter — save for one missed switch. Last year’s runner-up falls just, heartbreakingly, short of back-to-back Final Fours.
3. Colorado State Rams (12-seed, West)
How they lost: 72-71 to 4-seed Maryland in the round of 32
Peak win probability: 84% with :06 left in second half, leading by 1
Every year, there’s one game you just know is a lock to be featured in One Shining Moment. The buzzer-beating off-hand floater from Derik Queen immediately became one of the defining shots of the season. Only one double-digit seed reached the Sweet 16 this year, but Colorado State was about to make it two — and become the lone representative from a non-power conference to make the second weekend. Jalen Lake hit the go-ahead 3 with six seconds left. The Rams even led by 12 in the first half and looked the part of a true Cinderella. Instead, it’s heartbreak for CSU and madness for Maryland.
2. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-seed, West)
How they lost: 85-83 in overtime to 3-seed Texas Tech in the Sweet 16
Peak win probability: 98% with 4:43 left in second half, leading by 13
You’re not supposed to lose these games. You’re really not supposed to lose these games with a Hall of Fame coach leading the way. Here’s how the math works when you’re up 13 with 4:43 left: Texas Tech needs four possessions and 1:37 of clock to go on a 10-0 run. If Arkansas takes a few seconds to retrieve the ball after each basket, uses all five seconds to inbound the ball and takes four consecutive shot-clock violations, the Razorbacks give the Red Raiders the ball with ~35 seconds down 3. No worse than a tie, and you’re at overtime in that scenario — or maybe you play the free throw/foul game a bit. If you need to take a minute to process it all, go ahead. Arkansas would have been in the same spot at the end of the game had they simply taken shot clock violations. To make matters worse, the Hogs made five game-tying or go-ahead shots in overtime, just to lose on a Darrion Williams layup in the final seconds. Just another reminder that anything can happen in March Madness.
1. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-seed, West)
How they lost: 84-79 to 1-seed Florida in the Elite Eight
Peak win probability: 96% with 2:59 left in second half, leading by 9
You’d think after the stunning nature in which their previous game ended (see: above), that the Red Raiders would have gotten the memo about how important it is to close out games.
Lesson No. 1 is to not turn the ball over.
Lesson No. 2 is to make your free throws.
Texas Tech was one defensive rebound from salting the game away in the final minutes. Instead, Florida made a 3-pointer. Then it was a 1-and-1, to potentially push the lead to 8. Instead, Florida made another 3-pointer. Then it was déjà vu: Another free throw missed, another Florida 3. A 9-0 run in 63 seconds. A Thanos-like snap of the fingers and Tech’s lead vanished instantly. For the icing on the proverbial cake of calamity, the Gators went 6-for-6 from the free throw line in the final minute. The tournament gods giveth, but the tournament gods also taketh away.