Dutton running out of time to shift political momentum
Momentum is a cherished commodity in election campaigns.
It is hard earned and difficult to reverse.
And as we move into the second half of this campaign, the momentum is with Labor.
It isn’t huge. But, having spent the campaign so far swapping from one caravan to the other, I can say that it is tangible.
Peter Dutton’s Coalition is looking and acting like it is behind.
And Anthony Albanese’s Labor is summoning all the human restraint it can muster to suppress any hint of electoral confidence.
That can change.
But time is short and the last two weeks of this campaign will make the task of landing key electoral messages enormously challenging.
It is a fortnight interrupted by Easter, school holidays, Anzac Day and a variety of big sporting events that all provide compelling reasons for voters to tune out and concentrate on enjoying their real lives.
It isn’t good for either leader, but particularly so for Peter Dutton.
He knows he needs to lift his game and somehow find a way of landing his messages in that frustratingly distracted landscape.
If he doesn’t, Albanese might just be able to cruise back into the Lodge.
Dutton’s improved performance in Wednesday night’s leaders debate was a good start.
Although his admission that he doesn’t know Donald Trump, has never met him, can’t say whether he trusts him, but is still confident that he can get a better trade deal out of him rang rather hollow.
Mind you, Albanese’s suggestion that his Government didn’t model changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts on property investments was worse.
Treasury has modelled those things. They are on the public record. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has talked about them.
The Government didn’t strictly “commission” them, as Albanese pointed out. But that doesn’t matter. They still exist. And because they are from Treasury, they are still “Government” modelling.
Dutton needs a circuit breaker.
He needs a big point of difference to reshape the contest in his favour.
The debate didn’t do that for him.
And Thursday’s declared “aspiration” to index income tax brackets to finally deal with the intractable problem of bracket creep won’t either.
Dutton told The Australian in one sentence that he wanted to introduce indexation.
He then detailed in several more sentences why he couldn’t.
He would have liked to have made it an official election promise, but the state of the Budget under Labor and the uncertainty of the domestic and global economic outlooks prevented him.
So, it is just a long-term “aspiration”.
For many voters, that places it alongside the Miss Universe contestant’s wish for world peace and the little girl’s desire for lollipops to suddenly rain from the sky.
They are things they would like to see. But won’t.
Dutton needs something more compelling and real to offer. An empty hope and a forlorn desire won’t cut it.
And he needs to produce it quickly.
Labor has won every one of the three weeks so far.
It isn’t because the Government has done anything spectacular.
Far from it.
Labor’s campaign has been smooth but not special.
Anthony Albanese has looked relaxed and in control.
Importantly, he hasn’t stuffed up.
Peter Dutton has also appeared to be enjoying himself, turning up to his campaign stops with a cheery and confident demeanour.
But he has been forced to do a fair amount of cleaning up.
And that has been the difference.
While Dutton has tried daily to knock Albanese onto his heels with attacks over the economy, migration and housing he has spent an equal amount of time defending himself and his team against a series of self-inflicted injuries.
In the first week, he ditched his controversial return to work plan for the public service on advice from Coalition strategists that it was turning female voters away.
Then he lost the first leaders debate.
And this week he jumped too early on a discredited report that Russia was trying to base war planes in Indonesia that could threaten our northern shores.
In the process, he left himself open to claims from Labor that he had “verballed” the Indonesian President.
It wasn’t a good look.
So, what is the big difference between the campaigns?
It is something that will be hard to fix in a short time.
It is both the benefit and the burden of incumbency.
As Prime Minister for the past three years, Albanese has had to conduct himself in the intense focus of the national limelight on a daily basis.
It has made him match-fit and hardened by experience.
He has done regular, exhaustive news conferences and exposed himself to prosecutorial interviews on issues of big moment that have necessarily prepared him for the daily roastings on the campaign trail.
And Dutton has done the opposite.
He has conducted his political play almost entirely off-Broadway.
He has spent much of his time as Opposition Leader avoiding the Federal press gallery, preferring to conduct doorstop interviews in far-flung towns and suburbs where the chances of real interrogation are much reduced.
And now that he has been thrust into the intense light of the main stage, he is finding the audience much more difficult to please.
Albanese faced the same challenge in 2022. He stuffed up more than once and still won.
Dutton can take some heart from that.
But, given a heavily distracted audience, he has very little time to turn himself into a Broadway star and shift the political momentum — and applause — his way.