Pahalgam attack was designed to shake our confidence

Coordinated operations have been launched by security forces in the areas adjoining the place of the attack. Home Minister Amit Shah and other senior officials rushed to the Valley. Prime Minister Narendra Modi cut short his visit to Saudi Arabia and flew back to Delhi to chair a meeting immediately on arrival at Palam airport. The international community has also stood with India and condemned the attack. On the diplomatic front, there has been retribution. India, among other measures, has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, expelled diplomats and top defence officials from the Pakistan High Commission in Delhi and shut the Attari-Wagah border.

The Resistance Front (TRF), a front of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), was quick to claim ownership of the attack. The selection of the place and the method of the attack indicate detailed planning, possible prior reconnaissance and coordination. While the attack was possibly carried out by foreign terrorists with the help of local terrorists, even in the terrorist hierarchy, an attack of such magnitude would necessitate the involvement of senior leaders and their handlers. Investigations into the incident will surely unveil the full picture, though there are already whispers of Pakistan’s possible involvement, more so after a speech last week by its Chief of Army Staff Asif Munir, in which he described Jammu and Kashmir as Pakistan’s “jugular vein”.

The scale of the attack, the choice of the targets and the timing need further analysis to discern a possible pattern which then needs to be countered. Terrorist incidents in the hinterland of J&K can be broadly classified into three types. The first comprises attacks against the security forces to prove dominance and relevance, the second includes small-scale attacks on non-locals, aimed at fomenting fear within the state, and the third includes large-scale attacks of high visibility aimed at strategic messaging, designed to shake the confidence of the nation in its ability to bring peace.

The last two years saw an increase in infiltration and an attempted revival of insurgency in the Jammu region with numerous terror attacks. With the upcoming Amarnath Yatra, the focus ought to be shifted back to the Kashmir Valley. The selection of Baisaran, a soft target, inaccessible for vehicles with a large tourist presence during this time of the year, is indicative of the terrorists’ intention to cause maximum damage. They knew fully well that the reaction from security forces would take time, giving them ample opportunity to flee into the jungles.

The killings seem to have been timed with the high-profile visit of US Vice President J D Vance to India and the Prime Minister’s visit to Saudi Arabia to give the attack more visibility. Civilians were targeted earlier as well during high-profile visits. The killing of 36 Sikhs in Chittisinghpura in March 2001 during the visit of President Bill Clinton and the killing of about 20 civilians in Jammu region while Prime Minister Vajpayee was visiting Lahore are still fresh in memory of the nation.

Finally, what could be the possible motives for this attack? The return of normalcy to J&K (as substantiated by the large influx of tourists), the huge turnout in the smooth conduct of parliamentary elections in 2024 and the peaceful acceptance of the abrogation of Article 370 were not palatable to the leadership of the terror groups. Since the onset of insurgency in the late 1980s, whenever the internal situation has been brought under control by the security forces, some incidents have been engineered to derail the peace.

The message from Pahalgam is clear: The proxy war in J&K aided and abetted by the Pakistani state machinery is here to stay. Years of hard work by the Indian state and security forces are temporary. This is the narrative that the terrorists want to drive.

While national unity is much desired, knee-jerk reactions may not achieve the state’s objectives. The most important thing at the moment is to hunt down the perpetrators, and identify and destroy their support structure. Adequate security must be ensured for lines of communication. Technology must be exploited to supplement the efforts of the boots on the ground. The confidence of tourists and residents must be restored at the earliest by taking suitable security measures. Suitable proactive measures to prevent communal backlash in other parts of the country is also important. A holistic approach is required to initiate measures at the political, diplomatic, economic and military level to deter such attacks in the future.

The writer is a former general officer in the Indian Army. He served as the General Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Indian Army’s Eastern Command